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http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/02/24/pledged-emissions-cuts-targets-will-not-be-effective-study.html

Pledges put forward since the Copenhagen climate change conference will unlikely be able to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius by the middle of the century, a new study finds.

The new greenhouse gas modeling study — compiled in the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Year Book 2010 launched Tuesday — urged countries to be more ambitious in cutting greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to curb a rise in the global temperature at 2 degrees Celsius or less.

The study suggests that annual global greenhouse gas emissions should not be larger than 40 to 48.3 gigatons (Gt) of equivalent CO2 in 2020 and should peak sometime between 2015 and 2021.

It estimates that between 2020 and 2050, global emissions need to fall by between 48 and 72 percent, indicating that cuts to greenhouse gas emissions of 3 percent a year over a 30 year period is also needed.

“Such a path offers a ‘medium’ likelihood or at least a 50:50 chance of keeping a global
temperature rise at below 2 degrees Celsius,” it said.

UNEP executive director Achim Steiner noted there are clearly a great deal of assumptions underlying the figures, but they do provide an indication of where countries are and perhaps more importantly, where they need to aim.

“No one should assume that [the pledges] will be enough,” he said at the launch, held on the sidelines of the three-day Simultaneous Extraordinary Meetings of the Conference of Parties to the Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm conventions in Nusa Dua, Bali.

The conference will conclude Wednesday, the same day as the opening of the UNEP’s Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum, the largest such meeting since the Copenhagen Climate Conference last December.

The study, based on estimates by researchers at nine leading centers, has analyzed the pledges of 60 developed and developing countries recently submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The centers have now estimated how far these pledges go toward meeting a reasonable “peak” in emissions depending on whether the high of the low intensions are met.

“The expected emissions for 2020 range between 48.8 to 51.2 Gt of CO2 equivalent based on whether high or low pledges will be fulfilled,” it said.

Emissions in 2020 need to be between 40 and 48.3 Gt to meet the 2 degree Celsius aim in 2050.

“There clearly is a ‘Gigaton gap’, which may be significant according to some of the modelers and if over the next few years only the lower end of nations’ ambitions are fulfilled,” Steiner said.

“This needs to be bridged, and bridged quickly, if the international community is to protectively manage emissions down in a way that makes economic sense.”

Indonesian delegate Liana Bratasida, who is the environment minister’s assistant for global environment affairs and international cooperation, acknowledged the Copenhagen Accord as an important step, mainly for treating mitigation and adaptation efforts equally.

“But the [emissions cuts] pledges from the developed countries are far from enough,” she said.

The US, which refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol of 5 percent emission cuts, would only aim to cut its emissions by 17 percent by 2020 compared to 2005 levels.