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Some of the world's largest and fastest-growing economies, including India, are faced with an alarming situation. Their populations, ecosystems and business environments are faced with the greatest risks over the next 30 years, according to a new global ranking, which calculates the vulnerability of 170 countries to the impacts of climate change.

Though the authors of the index do not allude to UN conference from November 29 to December 10 in Cancun, Mexico, the ranking has been released in run-up to the landmark gathering. According to the UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres, action on climate change that could be agreed in Cancun and beyond would be about turning "small climate keys to unlock very big doors" into a new level of climate action among rich and poor, business and consumers, governments and citizens.
Mexican Foreign Minister and President-designate of the forthcoming Conference Patricia Espinosa has said that the Cancun meeting can and should be a significant step forward to benefit everybody, above all the most vulnerable and poor countries.
"In Mexico, we will show the world we are committed to take the next essential steps on climate change and that we are committed to the multilateral path as the only fair and effective route to resolve global problems," she said.
However, the findings of what is known as the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) are rather disquieting. The index rates altogether16 countries as 'extreme risk', including nations that represent new Asian economic power and are expected to register significant economic growth in the coming years. The CCVI has been released by global risks advisory firm Maplecroft.
Bangladesh tops the index, followed by India. Philippines ranks sixth, Vietnam thirteenth and Pakistan sixteenth. All the 16 countries featured in the highest risk category "are of particular importance as they are major contributors to the ongoing global economic recovery and are vital to the future expansion of Western businesses in particular", states Maplecroft.
The UK-based advisory enables organisations to identify areas of risk within their operations, supply chains and investments. It evaluates 42 social, economic and environmental factors to assess national vulnerabilities across three core areas.
These include: exposure to climate-related natural disasters and sea-level rise; human sensitivity, in terms of population patterns, development, natural resources, agricultural dependency and conflicts; thirdly, the index assesses future vulnerability by considering the adaptive capacity of a country’s government and infrastructure to combat climate change.
Referring to the 16 high risk nations, Principal Environmental Analyst at Maplecroft, Dr Matthew Bunce explains: "These countries are attracting high levels of foreign investment from many multinational organizations. However, over the next 30 years their vulnerability to climate change will rise due to increases in air temperature, precipitation and humidity."
"This means organisations with operations or assets in these countries will become more exposed to associated risks, such as climate-related natural disasters, resource security and conflict. Understanding climate vulnerability will help companies make their investments more resilient to unexpected change," he adds.
Other countries featuring in the ‘extreme risk’ category include: Madagascar (ranking third), Nepal (ranking fourth), Mozambique (fifth), Haiti (seventh), Afghanistan (eighth), Zimbabwe (ninth), Myanmar (10th), Ethiopia (11th), Cambodia (12th), Thailand (14th) and Malawi (15th).
As the most risk list indicates, those countries are characterised by high levels of poverty, dense populations, exposure to climate-related events; and their reliance on flood and drought prone agricultural land. Africa features strongly in this group. The continent is home to 12 out of the 25 countries most at risk, says Maplecroft.
The relevance of Climate Change Vulnerability Index lies in the fact that throughout 2010, changes in weather patterns have resulted in a series of devastating natural disasters, especially in South Asia, where heavy floods in Pakistan affected more than 20 million people, over 10 percent of the total population, and killed more than 1,700 people.
"There is growing evidence climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of climatic events," says Environmental Analyst at Maplecroft, Dr Anna Moss. "Very minor changes to temperature can have major impacts on the human environment, including changes to water availability and crop productivity, the loss of land due to sea level rise and the spread of disease."
Bangladesh is rated as the country most at risk because it is chacterised by extreme levels of poverty and a high dependency on agriculture. However, its government has the lowest capacity of all countries to adapt to predicted changes in the climate. In addition, Bangladesh has a high risk of drought and the highest risk of flooding.
This is exemplified during October 2010, when 500,000 people were driven from their homes by flood waters created by storms. However, despite the country’s plethora of problems, the Bangladesh economy grew 88 percent between 2000 and 2008 and is forecast to by the IMF to grow 5.4 percent over 2010 and up to 6.2 percent over the next five years.
"India, ranked second, is already one of the world's power brokers, but climate vulnerability could still adversely affect the country's appeal as a destination for foreign investment in coming decades," warns Maplecroft.
Vulnerability to climate-related events was seen in the build up to the Commonwealth Games, where heavy rains affected the progress of construction of the stadium and athletes' village. That apart, almost the whole of India has a high or extreme degree of sensitivity to climate change, due to acute population pressure and a consequential strain on natural resources. This is compounded by a high degree of poverty, poor general health and the agricultural dependency of much of the populace, explains Maplecroft.
The CCV index lists 11 countries as 'low risk', with Norway (170), Finland (169), Iceland (168), Ireland (167), Sweden (166) and Denmark (165) performing the best. However, Russia (117), USA (129), Germany (131), France (133) and the UK (138) are all rated as ‘medium risk’ countries.
However, China (49), Brazil (81) and Japan (86) feature in the 'high risk' category.
The Climate Change Vulnerability Index is the central component of Maplecroft’s Climate Change Risk Atlas 2011, which also evaluates the risks to business relating to emissions, unsustainable energy use, regulation and climate change vulnerability.
The index is also visually represented in an interactive, GIS derived "hotspots" sub-national map, which analyses climate change vulnerability risks down to a 25 square km scale worldwide. (IDN-InDepthNews/21.10.2010)