Despite the UK government having pledged to introduce a national carbon price floor, how the country’s carbon market will play out is open to speculation.

Fears that the UK’s carbon market will experience a market crash similar to the 2009 drop in the Netherlands to a low of around €35 per tonne are ever present.
According to him, the carbon market in the UK will balance itself out due to the interplay of different factors weighing themselves against each other.
‘It is most likely that we will limp our way to a balanced market,’ he said.
Getting carbon offset projects off the ground is not as challenging in European countries such as the Netherlands and Germany as it is in the UK, where only around 50 per cent of projects are granted planning consent.
The UK has, however, launched consultations on various structural plans it has for the waste sector that may weigh in against more stubborn factors.
A potential landfill ban may prompt industries to reuse and recover waste more frequently and to a greater extent, but these effects will flatten out over time, according to Judge.
Whether or not the UK has the resource depth to create enough of its own carbon offset programmes is another potential obstacle for the market.
‘We would have 20 per cent if overcapacity potential is reached. Now we are in a state of equilibrium with fast mover advantage,’ said Judge.